AN INTELLIGENCE-LED VIEW OF RISK IN A NARRATIVE-DRIVEN GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
For many Americans living and working abroad, particularly since 2016, a familiar dynamic has emerged in professional settings: becoming ‘the American in the room’. Whether in formal board discussions or the more candid conversations that follow over coffee or a glass of wine once the official agenda has been exhausted, the discussion tends with notable consistency to return to the same point of inquiry.
How did this happen? Or more practically, what ‘precisely’ is he doing?
The reference, inevitably, is to Donald Trump’s presidency and his approach to governing since taking office. The questions are rarely neutral. They are typically framed with some combination of concern, uncertainty as to what happens next, and perhaps most consistently, incredulity. They also tend to extend beyond policy into something more personal. For many observers, the reaction is not simply to the politics but to the personality and character through which those politics are delivered.
The phrasing varies, though not by much. Some interpretations suggest recklessness, others calculation, and many alternate between the two depending on the latest development. Whether viewed as necessary disruption or avoidable instability, the consequences are no longer theoretical. Markets, institutions and counterparties respond to perceived risk regardless of whether the underlying interpretation is universally shared.
It is in that vein that this article is written. While it attempts to address the recurring question of what, precisely, is happening, the focus is less on political intent than on the observable methodology and the systemic effects that follow from it.
Jul-Sep 2026 Issue
Koios Global Limited